Last year on a blog I did, I posted the following entry in late December.I think UCLA wins the Pac 10 and gets the #1 out west ultimately. Memphis won't get the #1 overall because of their weaker conference slate, but they still are #1 in the South. I think Carolina holds onto the #1 in the east and plays in Charlotte and Kansas wins the Big XII and gets the #1 in the midwest. My only caveat is that if Texas wins the Big XII, they get the #1 in the South (playing in Houston) and Memphis goes to Detroit.My waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early Final Four prediction - UCLA, Georgetown, Kansas, Memphis. Got three of four final four teams, and all four #1 seeds right. The year before, here was my Final Four prediction in February:It occurs to me that I should make a prediction. NCAA final four (definitely will change) - UCLA, Kansas, Georgetown, Memphis.All four of those teams got to the Elite Eight. Yes, I predicted the exact same Final Four back to back years. But let me explain why. I believe that in order to get deep into the NCAA tournament a team has to have certain pieces and has to be able to do certain things. I have divided teams into three categories - Threats (teams with a legit shot to win it all), Contenders (teams that could get into the last weekend and maybe steal it) and Pretenders (teams people think could make a run that have a fatal flaw)I list teams in order according to what I think of them.The Threats1. Wake Forest - Not because they beat UNC. Not because they are undefeated. It's because they are long and athletic. They will defend. They can score. I need to watch them some more to see if they bring it at a high level every possession of every game, but I like what I have seen so far.2. Pittsburgh - My one concern with them is their explosive scoring. Do they have a guy that can just lose his mind for ten minutes and carry them? I'm not sure, but with the Big East being so strong, I'm sure we will find out.3. North Carolina - My only issue with them is that when Ginyard isn't out there, they won't defend. That's it. Everything else checks out great. But they just don't seem interested in getting stops all the time. That will haunt them in March. It almost gets them bumped down a category here.4. Connecticut - They have size, athleticism, guard play and they will defend. But they have seemed to underachieve the last couple years due to injury. Can they stay healthy when it counts?The Contenders1. Louisville - They don't bring it every night, which is why they are here. If they consistently gave a championship effort, they would be championship contenders. As of now, they are just a good team.2. Syracuse - Last Big East team, I promise. They can play you a bunch of different ways. They have seven legit players, but can put their best five out there and play any style they want. Plus, Johnny Flynn wants the ball when a play needs to be made. You can't underestimate that.3. UCLA - They will get after you on the defensive end, which is a key on a championship contender. Unfortunately, I don't know that you can win 6 consecutive games where you don't score more than 65 points. They are offensively challenged, and I don't know that they can fix that, unless they have some freshmen emerge and start putting the ball in the hole.4. Oklahoma - Blake Griffin can take over a game as a physical presence. They will defend until you collapse. Willie Warren is an upgrade at the point, although they need his scoring to be most successful. If Austin Johnson can come back and run the point to let Warren be the #2 scorer, this team is VERY dangerous.5. Georgetown - Ok, so one more Big East team. I LOVE teams that will defend. G'town will get after you. Unfortunately, like UCLA, I don't know that they can score enough to have a shot at lifting the trophy. I do, however, think they will defend you tough enough to win 2 or 3 games in March, maybe even make a deeper run.6. Arizona State - Only one reason, James Harden. He can do EVERYTHING. I put them up here because he could get hot and carry a pretty decent cast a long way in March. On the other hand, they could flame out quickly if he can be checked.The Pretenders1. Duke - Coach K has a flawed roster. He doesn't have a true inside scorer that can get easy baskets whenever they want. They don't have an explosive creative scorer that can produce the same. They depend on hitting lots of threes. This has early round flame out written all over it. 2. Gonzaga - People love the Zags. They have talent. I'm not sure they are really committed defensively. If I see that commitment, I may have to rethink them. Also, I need to find a tough, gritty dirty work guy on this team. If located, I may bump them up a group.3. Notre Dame - This is basically a less athletic North Carolina. They are slightly more interested in defending, but Harangody is no Hansborough, which means that when confronted by a bigger guy, he's toast.4. Michigan State - I can't trust a Big Ten team, especially one that in their last two big games (UNC this year, Memphis last year) looked utterly outclassed by an elite athletic team. Do they play games in slow motion in the Big Ten?5. Texas - They go five deep. Unacceptable in March. They only have two real scorers of those five. Unacceptable in March. They are absolutely jumpshot dependent, a sure recipe for disaster in March. I love that they will defend. AJ Abrams is a great shooter, but that isn't enough come March.6. Clemson - They started hot against a weak non-con schedule. Until I see them look good, really good, against the top ACC teams (UNC, Duke, Wake) I will believe nothing.And for the record, I think the Hawks are a round of 32 loser. Right now, they just aren't consistent enough to convince me that they will play full tilt on consecutive nights. Given where they will likely be seeded (6-9), they will need to play all out to advance to the Sweet Sixteen. As always, this is subject to change. Check back in mid February to see where I stand with teams.